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Corn Update

The USDA revised last fall's corn harvest upwards by 108 million bushels, with yields increasing from 174.9 to 177.3 bushels per acre. This marks one of the most substantial November to January yield increases in the past two decades. Despite a slight reduction in acreage, the old crop stocks as of December 1 were reported at 12.169 billion bushels, which was higher than trade estimates. Consequently, the ending stocks were adjusted to 2.162 billion bushels, slightly inflating an already large domestic corn supply.

Internationally, the Brazilian corn crop estimate was reduced by 2 million tons to 127 million, while Argentina's estimate remained unchanged at 55 million tons.

Soybean Insights

The USDA also revised soybean production, with an increase of 36 million bushels, resulting in a new yield of 50.6 bushels per acre. This ties for the second-largest yield increase in the past 20 years. Although there was a minor decrease in acreage, the focus remained on the yield adjustment.

Quarterly grain stocks for soybeans were reported at 3.000 billion bushels, slightly above trade expectations. Despite no changes in exports or crush, the ending stocks for soybeans were raised from 245 to 280 million bushels, potentially leading to a downside in the soybean market.

The Brazilian soybean crop forecast was lowered by 4 million tons to 157 million, while the Argentine forecast saw an increase of 2 million tons to 50 million.

Wheat Overview

Regarding wheat, there were no changes to the 2023 harvest in this report. The quarterly grain stocks as of December 1 were higher than expected by about 23 million bushels. The USDA lowered the ending stocks from 659 to 648 million bushels.

The report on fall-winter wheat plantings indicated a significant reduction of 2.2 million acres from the previous year, now at 34.4 million acres, which was much lower than the trade's expectation of 35.8 million acres.